Betting on the Arnold Palmer Invitational for me brought more pain than excitement. I had golfers in great positions on Sunday to either cash an outright or cash placement tickets. They ALL bombed leaving me with a handful of losing bet slips.
Congrats to Scottie Scheffler for reminding us that he is the best player on the planet and almost unbeatable when his putter cooperates. Now he tries to do the impossible at The Players Championship. That’s winning the tournament two years in a row, something that has never been done.
Scheffler is going off at +550. If he wins, it’s good for him. However, I am not betting him at that price. Not with the history and the volatility of this event.
TPC Sawgrass is a tricky course that has water in play on almost every hole. It rewards good drives and strong iron play. Last year I labeled this course as a ball striker’s paradise. At the time Scheffler was #1 in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. It was an easy wager for me.
TPC Sawgrass is a course where you can strike a line through course history. If a golfer has a ton of success here, that doesn’t mean he’s going to continue Same with if a golfer missed the cut the season prior, that doesn’t eliminate them from contention the following season.
Their current form is the most important stat when coming to TPC. Golfers need to be playing well. Good ball strikers, who are playing great golf are the golfers you want to target.
Here’s a look at the metrics correlated to success at this course.
Key Metrics for Success
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Approach
- SG: BS
- SG: Putting
- SG: Par 5
- P4: 450-500
- Bogey Avoidance
Top Outright Bet for The Players Championship
Justin Thomas +2500
As a lifetime lover of the Crimson Tide, when Justin Thomas is playing well, I’m jumping for joy for his success. When he is playing poorly, I feel sadness and pain. Last year was tough. Not only did he play poorly, but he also missed out on a lot of his goals for the season. The offseason was just the reset that he needed for this season.
Outside of his missed cut at the Genesis, Thomas has been playing great golf. He has six top 20s in seven events, three of which were top 10s.
Thomas has been rolling the rock much better this season than he did for most of last year. While tournament history isn’t the most important thing here, he’s a past champion, so he’s proved that he can conquer this event.
Other Outright Bets: Will Zalatoris +3300, Sam Burns +4000, Hideki Matsuyama +3300, Wyndham Clark +3500
Top Prop Bet The Players Championship
Tom Hoge Top 40 (+110)
This week is tough to get excited about betting placement bets. This course is crazy volatile and much like last week, a player can bomb one round and be totally out of the placement you need. However, who would I be if I didn’t offer up some placement bets for us to root on all week?
These bets can be found on BetMGM Sportsbook. I use this book because all ties are paid in full.
Tom Hoge has been playing some really good golf this season. He’s finished inside the top 40 in five consecutive events. He managed to somehow finish inside the top 20 despite losing 4.8 strokes on the putting surface.
Hoge is third in SG: BS. This course should be designed well for the Horned Frog. His fairways and greens and let the rest handle itself.
Other Prop Bets: Keith Mitchell Top 40 (+110), Sam Burns Top 20 +125
Top Longshot The Players Championship
Andrew Novak +20000
I bet on Andrew Novak with the assumption that Novak would be in the field given his excellent start to the season. Despite Novak finishing inside the top 10 in three straight events, he did not receive an invite to the Arnold Plamer Invitational. Maybe he enters this week with a grudge and a little extra fire, maybe he’s calm, cool, and collected. Either way, given his current form, I wouldn’t price him at +20000.
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Other Longshot Bets: Byeong Hun An +7500, Chris Kirk +11000, Erik Van Rooyen +12500, Nick Taylor +12500
