Mike Rhoades will get his first Mackey experience at Nittany Lions HC
#1 Purdue remains the favorite in the Big Ten, but the margin is slimming. For the third year in a row, if Purdue loses a game, it means its conference play. So that has Purdue at 14-2 on the season but just 3-2 in the Big Ten, squarely in the upper half of the conference.
Penn State’s first trip through the Big Ten with new head coach Mike Rhoades hasn’t been as clean, going 8-8 in its first 16 games, but it’s had a somewhat positive start to its Big Ten Conference season, going 2-3 with wins over Ohio State and Michigan.
Purdue was one of four top-five teams to lose in the span of a couple days. #2 Houston went down for its first loss of the season, #3 Kansas fell, and #5 Tennessee all went down throwing this season further into uncertainty when it comes to who is college basketball’s dominant force, if there is one.
Purdue still stands firmly as the best resume in basketball and if the season ended today, it would hold for the #1 overall seed, but last year’s #1 champion UCONN looms as a team prime to take over the top spot in the polls.
Purdue will get one more showing this week though to show the country that behind Zach Edey, it’s still the best team in college basketball. Purdue will be energized by returning to the confines of Mackey Arena where the students will have returned from winter break, hungry to get back in the Big Ten race.
A game of guards
“It starts with those two guards,” Matt Painter said ahead of Purdue’s final practice before its game against Penn State. The two guards, sophomore Kanye Clary and Sr. transfer Ace Baldwin, are Penn State’s two leading scorers entering the game against Purdue. “They’re so fast and shifty. They put a lot of pressure on the basketball. Then they put a lot of pressure on you on the other end with their ability to break you down.”
Ace Baldwin followed Rhoades from VCU to Penn State. He’s struggled to bring his three-point efficiency with him, but he remains the Nittany Lions best play maker. His assist rate is at an impressive 25% while not turning the ball over. He’s a quick, in your pocket defender and is used to the aggressive, relentless defensive style Rhoades prefers to play.
Clary, is quite frankly, fantastic. The young guard is Penn State’s offense, scoring nearly 20 a game while showing efficiency at all three levels. He’s a 53% shooter from inside the arc, he’s hitting nearly 37% of his threes, and he knocks down 86% of his free throws while being really good at getting to the line.
He’s a guard that’s good enough to garner a lot of looks next off season.
But Saturday, he’ll be Purdue’s problem. He’s a quick guard, thin and relentless with the ball in his hands. Despite his high usage rate, he’s not prone to making many mistakes. He has a turnover rate under 14%. He’s going to be one of the toughest matchups for Lance Jones this season. Jones can view the opportunity as a chance to get back on the right side of a one on one matchup after Keisei Tominaga had his usual way with the Purdue defense.
Possession Arrow Favors?
Penn State is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. It has a 23.2 turnover percentage, a staple of Rhoades brought with him from his VCU days. Purdue has protected the ball at a middle of the road pace on offense, committing a turnover on 16.9% of its possessions. When Purdue has lost, turnovers have been a large part in it the last few years.
But Penn State is also giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate for a team about to play Zach Edey. Team’s are getting an offensive rebound on 33.1% of misses.
Purdue is a top-20 offensive rebounding team, grabbing 36.6% of its own misses on the year. That mark is led by Edey, but Edey has been less effective on the year in grabbing misses. Part of that could be the addition of Trey Kaufman-Renn to the starting line. Kaufman-Renn after a slow start to the season has really started to get to the glass. He’s now grabbing 13% of Purdue’s misses while on the floor, a top-75 mark on the season for college players.
But beyond the numbers, Zach Edey is coming off two of his least impactful performances since moving into Purdue’s starting lineup. He grabbed just 7 rebounds against Nebraska and scored just 25 points combined in the last two games.
After the game, Edey repeated he needed to play better to almost every question he was asked. The last thing a struggling team on the glass needed was to go into a motivated Edey’s house.
Purdue’s biggest advantage through the seasons has been its ability to simply have more possessions and shots than other teams. That advantage has waned in the last couple games, with Nebraska out hustling and out playing Purdue last game.
Purdue looks like a team ready to feast on some home cooking and get back to doing what it does best – play hard.
And Penn State is a bit at the mercy of the make up of its team. It’s lone big over 6-8, is Qudus Wahab who has been really good on the glass, but he’s also just 6-11 and 245 lbs..
Purdue will look to dominate on the glass, but to do that, it will have to fight its tendency to turn the ball over. Something it did casually against Nebraska. Every shot that goes up against Penn State is a chance for Purdue to get to on the offensive glass. That will be Purdue’s first priority.
