I feel like I have spent much of this NBA season trying to talk myself into the idea that a Boston vs. Denver Finals was not destined and we could have drama. I give up. That means Thursday night we get to see a Finals preview when Boston heads to Denver for a fascinating showdown, part of a stacked Thursday night of games that feels like Fight Night in the NBA.
1. Boston Celtics (48-13, Last Week No. 1). The Celtics feel inevitable. Ignore the one bad quarter against Cleveland on Tuesday, this team won 11 in a row before that and in that run showed why they have been the class of the league this season. This not just a team with elite talent like Jayson Tatum, it has balance — their top eight players can all defend and can all shoot. Deep in the playoffs, when it becomes about attacking a team’s weakest link, Boston doesn’t have an obvious one. The only concern is the games they go cold from 3 — 47.1% of their shot attempts are from beyond the arc, and when those don’t fall the offense bogs down and they don’t attack the rim enough. That’s probably what Denver is hoping for in their big showdown on Thursday night, the main event in a night of big games.
2. Denver Nuggets (42-20, LW 4). We said we’d learn a lot about these Nuggets when they entered the gauntlet of the past two weeks. Well… they are who we thought they were. The Nuggets beat the Warriors, Kings, Heat and Lakers, and it took Kevin Durant doing Kevin Durant things for the Suns to get an overtime win at the end of that streak. Though it all, Nikola Jokic may have strengthened his grip on a third MVP trophy. The biggest measuring stick game comes Thursday night in Denver when Boston — and their own MVP candidate in Jayson Tatum — come to town with the headliner game on Fight Night in the NBA.
3. Milwaukee Bucks (41-21, LW 6). Winners of six in a row out of the All-Star break with the best defense in the NBA over that stretch — Milwaukee is starting to look like the team we all expected prior to the season and the biggest threat to Boston in the East. Part of what has turned the defense around is Doc Rivers getting them to focus on getting back in transition defense, but hand-in-hand with that they have lowered their turnover rate to one of the best in the league (it translates to more than two fewer turnovers a game since the break). It’s a tough schedule this week for the Bucks on the road out West against the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, and Kings.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder (42-19, LW 2). Mark Daigneault on Lou Dort: “This is what I always go back to: We try to put ourselves in the shoes of the opponent and the opponent, they don’t want any part of him… When he checks into the game, at least a few times a year, a star player comes to the table. I send him to the table, and the star player looks at me, like, ‘Come on, man.’ Like yeah, here it comes. So, to me, it is the mark of a great defender. He’s got the respect of his peers.”
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (43-19, LW 3). It’s a positive thing, Timberwolves fans: Your team is good enough that we have turned to nit-picking their playoff chances. Minnesota is going to finish with a top-three seed and will bring the NBA’s best defense to the postseason party, the only questions are about the offense in general, and the clutch-time offense as well. That will happen with a young Anthony Edwards as the No. 1 option — the question isn’t “Will he be good enough?” but rather “Is he good enough right now?” We can get a little taste of that Thursday night in the NBA’s Fight Night showdowns when the Timberwolves elite defense faces the Pacers elite offense is a clash of styles. (That game starts a tough six-game road trip.)
6. Cleveland Cavaliers (40-21, LW 5). Who needs Donovan Mitchell back when you have Dean Wade? Wade’s “Where did that come from?!?” The 20-point fourth quarter against Boston was part of a big win and keeps the team on track for a 2-3 seed in the East (which matters; it means they are on the other side of the bracket from Boston). Mitchell may want to return from the PRP treatment on his left knee (to aid recovery from a bone bruise) for personal reasons, he’s having an All-NBA season but he has missed 14 games already this season, if that number hits 18 he falls short of the league’s new 65-game criteria and he is ineligible for any postseason awards.
7. Los Angeles Clippers (39-21, LW 7). Law Murray, the fantastic Clippers beat writer for The Athletic, made this point during a recent podcast it stuck with me: The Clippers are not doing what contending teams do and crank up their intensity, their execution and get serious after the All-Star break. Los Angeles is talented enough to make the Western Conference Finals, but they aren’t executing at near that level and have not gotten closer to it in the last month as we have seen teams like Boston and Denver do. The Clips are 3-4 with a -2.3 net rating since the break. To use Kawhi Leonard‘s words, they’re winning on talent. That’s not going to be enough and they’ve got to start building some good habits (and start playing a little faster). They will have to do that without Russell Westbrook after his hand surgery, which pushes Bones Hyland into the spotlight.
8. Miami Heat (35-26, LW 11). Continuity? Who needs continuity? Miami has won 7-of-8 and 11-of-14 and this team still does not have a lineup that has played more than 79 minutes together this season (and that doesn’t get better with Josh Richardson done for the season with shoulder surgery). Erik Spoelstra does not get enough credit for the job he does, we almost take his greatness for granted. Who knows who the Heat will have available for their Thursday night Fight Night in the NBA showdown in Dallas against Luka Doncic and company, but it might not matter the way the Heat keep adapting and adjusting.
9. New Orleans Pelicans (37-25, LW 12). The Pelicans, winners of 7-of-10, have a relatively difficult schedule the rest of the way as they try to hold on to a top-six seed and avoid the play-in. It helps that they are catching teams at the right time (Philly without Embiid Friday, Atlanta without Young Sunday, Cleveland maybe without Mitchell next Wednesday). Can the Pelicans rack up enough wins the rest of the way to catch the Clippers for the No. 4 seed and home court in the first round? Probably not, three games is not easy to make up, but with the Clippers stumbling of late anything is possible. The Pelicans just need to be consistent (not their strong suit this season).
10. New York Knicks (36-26, LW 10). In the 11 games between when Mitchel Robinson went down and the team traded for OG Anunoby, the Knicks had one of the worst defenses in the NBA. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that with Anunoby out following elbow surgery (and Robinson still out), the Knicks’ defense has fallen off a cliff. In their last 15 games (all without Anunoby) they have. 118.6 defensive rating, which is 26th in the league, and a 6-9 record because of it. The good news is Anunoby and Julius Randle are nearing a return, and better yet Jalen Brunson‘s knee issue that forced him out of the game vs. Cleveland does not appear to be serious. Healthy, this team is dangerous in the East postseason.
11. Phoenix (36-26, LW 9). Devin Booker‘s ankle sprain is hitting this team on a few levels. This team is a game out of the play-in (tied with Sacramento in the loss column for the No. 7 seed) and they have a brutal schedule coming up (Boston on Saturday followed by a road trip against the best of the East). Booker could miss most or all of that trip and the team has a -2.3 net rating without him. Then there is Booker personally, who is having an All-NBA level season — 27.5 points, 6.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds a game — but has missed 12 games already, if that number gets to 18 he will fall short of the league’s 65-game minimum for postseason awards.
12. Orlando Magic (36-26, LW 16). Can Orlando win a round in the playoffs? They have flown under the radar all season but they are the No. 4 seed in the East (tied with the Knicks for fifth). They have an elite defense, an All-Star in Paolo Banchero, and a guy who should get Most Improved Player consideration in Franz Wagner (Jamahl Mosley should get some Coach of the Year consideration as well). This is a young team that’s learning, but if they can host the 4/5 first-round matchup, they have a chance against the Knicks or anyone. Don’t sleep on this team.
13. Dallas Mavericks (34-28, LW 8). Luka Doncic’s MVP case is strong — 34.6 points, 9.8 assists and 9 rebounds a game — but the biggest anchor on him rising up to threaten Nikola Jokic or SGA is the Mavericks as a team. Dallas has lost three straight and 5-of-6, and sits eighth in the West. With the other top MVP contenders battling for top three seeds, the Mavericks’ record drags Doncic down. He can help that case with a strong showing on Thursday night against a very good Heat defense, part of the amazing Thursday Night/Fight Night slate of games. Dallas needs some wins and Doncic needs to provide them.
14. Los Angeles Lakers (34-29, LW 14). This last week provided the case for and against the Lakers making a deep playoff run again — and it’s all about matchups. The Lakers hosted Denver and saw again that they are short of the West’s best (Denver played with its food for three quarters then finished the Lakers off). However, when the Lakers got a young team they could push around in Oklahoma City, Los Angeles looked like a team that could win a round or two (especially if D’Angelo Russell gets hot and steals a game). Congratulations to LeBron on reaching the 40,000-point club.
15. Golden State Warriors (32-28, LW 13). Golden State had a good road trip going 3-1 — although that one loss was a 52-point thrashing at the hands of the Celtics that is hard to just flush. Still, the Warriors needed wins and they got them. The Warriors want to move up in the standings, the sit 10th in the West but are just a game out of eighth (and with it an easier path through the play-in). Making up three games to catch Phoenix for the No. 6 seed and avoiding the play-in altogether may be too big an ask, but the Warriors have the easiest schedule of any team in the West the rest of the way, and this week that includes the Bulls and two against the Spurs (although the Bucks are first).
16. Indiana Pacers (35-28, LW 15). Tyrese Haliburton is in a serious slump, averaging 11.4 points per game on 32.8% shooting overall and 19.4% from 3, and while he’s still dishing out 8.4 assists a game that’s almost three fewer a night than his season average. Haliburton is the engine of an elite Pacers offense, and since the team can’t defend anyone, this kind of slump has watched the Pacers slide to the No. 8 seed in the East (they likely can’t fall any further, they are 5 games up on the nine-seed Bulls). Things don’t get easier this week as the Pacers are lined up to take on three very good defenses: Minnesota (Thursday night, part of that wild Fight Night of games), then Orlando and Oklahoma City.
17. Sacramento Kings (34-26, LW 17). Sacramento remains inconsistent and hard to pin down: Is this the team that beat the Timberwolves (without De’Aaron Fox) or the one that lost to the Bulls? They are the forgotten team in the logjam in the middle of the West, but despite the continued strong play of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis this team just is not striking fear into anyone in the West. If the Kings want to solidify their spot in the West (and get into the top six) this is the week to make a push with games against the Lakers, Spurs and Rockets.
18. Philadelphia 76ers (35-26, LW 18). Give Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers credit for keeping their heads above water with Joel Embiid out: They are 6-9 since he last played, and while that’s not good it could have been worse. Tobias Harris has helped of late putting up 31 points against Charlotte then 28 against Dallas, both 76ers wins. Philadelphia sits tied with the Heat for the 6/7 seeds in the East, in the middle of the bunched-up pack from seeds 4-8 separated by 1.5 games. There remains no timeline for Embiid return but he did say this week he’s coming back regardless of the team’s seed, he wants to be part of the postseason.
19. Chicago Bulls (29-32, LW 20). The Bulls seem pretty much locked into the No. 9 seed in the East, that despite some strong outings of late from Coby White and DeMar DeRozan. It feels like the most interesting thing to watch the rest of the regular season in Chicago is the White’s push for Most Improved Player (he is certainly in the mix (he’s second in the betting odds at +650, but well behind heavy favorite Tyrese Maxey). The Bulls are on the road out West this week (having already beat the Kings), they now face the Jazz, Warriors and Clippers before heading home.
20. Atlanta Hawks (27-34, LW 19). The Hawks are 3-2 since Trae Young went out due to finger surgery, and for the season they are 5-5 in games he has missed. Choose to do with that information what you will. With our without Young, the Hawks seem pretty locked into the No. 10 seed in the East, with a 2.5-game lead over the Nets (and Brooklyn is not exactly tearing things up). Cleveland, Memphis and New Orleans on the schedule this week.
21. Houston Rockets (27-34, LW 22). Alpren Sengun putting up 45 on the Spurs — and doing that against Wembanyama — highlights just what a leap the big man has made this season. He’s a distant third in Most Improved Player betting, but he’s unlikely to win it because some voters will not cast a ballot for second or third year player (thinking they are supposed to make developmental leaps those years). Still, Sengun has stood out and made himself a core part of the Rockets going forward.
22. Brooklyn Nets (25-37, LW 25). The Nets have won 4-of-6 and have a chance to make the play-in: They are 2.5 games back of the Hawks (three in the loss column) for the No. 10 seed and Brooklyn has a much easier schedule the rest of the way. Brooklyn has been winning with defense under interim coach Kevin Ollie, having the seventh best defense in the league over their last six games. The Nets head out on a six-game road trip this week starting in Detroit and Charlotte.
23. Toronto Raptors (23-39, LW 21). Dreams of a chase to catch Atlanta for the No. 10 seed in the East were broken when Scottie Barnes broke his finger. He is likely done for the season, and with that the chances of making up 3.5 games on the Hawks also seems done. On a positive note, Toronto native Kelly Olynyk is staying home for the next couple of years. The Raptors reached a two-year extension with the stretch big, who is a natural fit next to the driving games of Pascal Siakam, Barnes and RJ Barrett.
24. Utah Jazz (28-34, LW 23). Utah is 2-8 in its last 10 with the worst defense in the NBA over that stretch, which is sometimes what happens when you throw your young players into the fire and see if they can make a push to the play-in (spoiler alert: They did not). Taylor Hendricks is getting a very long look (and would form a very long frontcourt with John Collins and Lauri Markkanen).
25. Portland Trail Blazers (17-43, LW 28). The Trail Blazers have won two games in March — both against the Grizzlies — which is two more than they won in all of February. It’s a start. It’s just hard to get a feel for this team and what they might grow into with all the injuries, particularly Scoot Henderson not getting more run. Malcolm Brogdon had a positive injury update, although whether they bring him back this season remains up in the air.
26. Memphis Grizzlies (21-41, LW 24). Memphis isn’t winning much but it is getting back to playing good defense — the Grizzlies have the 10th ranked defense in the NBA over their last 10 games. They also continue to play hard, a tribute to coach Taylor Jenkins. One of those guys playing hard is 2022 draft pick Jake LaRavia, who has been getting a long look since the All-Star break.
27. San Antonio Spurs (13-49, LW 29). Honest question: How soon will Victor Wembanyama be the best player in the NBA? Five years? Three? After watching him the past few weeks I may be leaning three… or fewer. That can lead to a discussion of how much pressure it puts on San Antonio to speed up its timeline of building around Wembanyama — just stop with the talk he might leave, he wanted to be in San Antonio plus that’s not how NBA rookie contracts work. For now, we need to just sit back and enjoy watching him play. This is a guy averaging 20.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 3.4 blocks a game who is already one of the best defenders on the league. Savor watching this rookie, don’t stress about the future.
28. Charlotte Hornets (15-47, LW 26). New Hornet head of basketball operations Jeff Peterson said all the right things at his introductory press conference: “You are going to get sick of me saying this, but we are going to turn this into the premier franchise in the NBA” and “I don’t think it’s fair to put a timeline on [a return to the playoffs]. We don’t want to skip steps, we want to do it organically.” Sounds good. Words are nice, now it’s about actions.
29. Detroit Pistons (9-52, LW 27). One thing to watch the rest of the way is now the five-man starting lineup — Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren — looks. They have a -10.9 net rating for the season, but in just 116 minutes (limited run due to injuries and the like). The core looked good in some games (Chicago a week ago) but not others. The rest of this season should be about seeing how they gel.
30. Washington Wizards (9-52, LW 30). Losers of 15 straight, the best chance to break that streak would seem to be Friday night at home against the Hornets. After that, the Wizards head out on the road for four (although one of those is against struggling Detroit). The one bright spot has been the playoff Tyus Jones, who is a free agent this summer and adding to his payday of late.
