In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Brewers-centric chat on 10-10-23 at 7:30PM CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.
The Brewers reached the playoffs for the fifth time in sixth seasons, but were upset and swept out of the Wild Card Series by the Diamondbacks, triggering a quick start to what might be a somewhat transformative offseason. Longtime manager Craig Counsell is out of contract come November and has been non-committal about his future in Milwaukee, while the Brewers face tough decisions on a trio of prominent players.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Christian Yelich, OF: $136.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
- Aaron Ashby, SP: $18.5MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of 2028 club option; Brewers also hold $13MM club option for 2029 with no buyout)
- Freddy Peralta, SP: $7MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)
Total 2024 commitments: $32.75MM
Total future commitments: $162MM
Option Decisions
- Mark Canha, 1B/OF: $11.5MM club option for 2024 ($2MM buyout)
- Wade Miley, SP: $10MM mutual option for 2024 ($1MM buyout)
- Andrew Chafin, RP: $7.25MM club option for 2024 ($725K buyout)
- Justin Wilson, RP: $2.5MM club option for 2024 ($150K buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
With speculation swirling for years about the possibility of David Stearns leaving the Brewers to run the Mets’ front office, a subsection of rumors also formed around Counsell, whose contract (like Stearns) was up at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Stearns’ deal allowed him to start negotiating with other teams on August 1, and it took a little over a month before Stearns indeed ended up as New York’s new president of baseball operations. Firing Buck Showalter was one of Stearns’ first decisions as PBO, thus leaving the Mets in need of a new manager.
Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has been open about his desire to retain Counsell, though the skipper asked that any contract talks be put off until after the season. This would seemingly set the stage for Counsell to make a clean exit to Queens, or perhaps to one of the other managerial vacancies (Giants, Guardians, Angels) around the game, or maybe to a season or two away from baseball entirely to recharge his batteries. Only Counsell knows what his next step will be, and should he indeed depart, Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold will have to add a new managerial hire to the top of the offseason to-do list.
Though Stearns, possibly Counsell, and possibly at least one of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames won’t be back next season, it doesn’t seem like the Brewers will entertain the idea of a rebuild. This is still a talented roster that just won 92 games, and both Attanasio and Arnold seem committed to the idea of perpetual contention in the model of the Rays or Guardians, without the need to ever fully tear things down like other medium-to-small market teams.
That still means some tough budget decisions will have to be made, however. This offseason has always been seen as something of a flashpoint for the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames trio, as all three are entering their final trip through the arbitration process and are scheduled for free agency following the 2024 campaign. As per Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections for MLBTR, the trio are set to earn roughly $39.1MM in salary next year. Combined with the $26MM that Christian Yelich will receive, that’s four players covering around $65.1MM in payroll for a team whose entire Opening Day payroll in 2023 was a touch under $118.8MM. Among the arbitration class, the likely non-tenders of Rowdy Tellez and Eric Lauer will free up some cash, but closer Devin Williams is also getting a significant raise in his second year of arb eligibility.
If Attanasio feels the team is still close to a championship, could he okay a one-year payroll boost and retain all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for what would essentially be a “last dance” season? In theory yes, though it seems like 2023 might’ve already been that last dance. As much Milwaukee fans dislike the idea of prominent players being dealt for financial reasons, a canny trade would allow the Brew Crew to both save some money and acquire some talent to help the team in both 2024 and beyond.
Keeping all of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames even until the next trade deadline would carry further risk, for one because the 2022 Josh Hader deal is an example of how such a trade can disrupt a clubhouse at midseason. Furthermore, the players’ trade value could be lessened or erased completely in the event of injury or under-performance — a circumstance that has perhaps already happened with two of the three.
Woodruff pitched only 67 innings in 2023 due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, and more shoulder problems arose right as the postseason began, keeping Woodruff off the playoff roster. Even if this current issue does prove to be relatively minor, rival teams might already be scared off at the idea of trading for an injured pitcher, and the Crew doesn’t want to sell low.
In the worst-case scenario of a major shoulder injury, Woodruff missing some or all of the 2024 season has greater impact than just on his trade status. For one, the Brewers might be less inclined to move Burnes if they know they’ll also be losing their other ace to the injured list. Woodruff’s health situation might erase the “need” for a trade, since otherwise, Burnes seems like the clear sell-high candidate of the trio after another All-Star season.
Even in an offseason with a pitching-heavy free agent market, clubs unwilling or unable to spend on a big long-term free agent deal will have plenty of interest in one year of Burnes’ services. Conceivably, the Brewers could aim to land pitching as part of a Burnes trade to bolster the rotation in the event of a Woodruff injury. As indicated by last offseason’s three-team swap between the Brewers, Athletics, and Braves, Arnold is willing to get creative in trades, so the team obtaining Burnes wouldn’t necessarily be the team also giving up an arm in return.
Rotation depth has traditionally been a strength for the Brewers, particularly in a 2023 season that saw several starters miss significant stretches. But, beyond Burnes, Woodruff, and Lauer’s probable non-tender, Colin Rea and Julio Teheran (who combined for 33 starts) are free agents, and Wade Miley can also re-enter free agency by declining his end of a mutual option. Without any of these arms, the Brewers’ top rotation options are now Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby returning after missing all of 2023 due to shoulder surgery, rookie Janson Junk and his nine career MLB games, and pitching prospect Robert Gasser on the verge of his Major League debut.
Re-signing Rea or Teheran might not be too expensive, and a reunion with Lauer is possible on a lower salary than his $5.2MM arbitration projection. Miley could potentially also stay if the Brew Crew negotiated a new contract, but if not, expect Milwaukee to target another Miley-esque veteran hurler who can add some stability and innings on a short-term deal.
Given how starting pitching has been the backbone of the Brewers’ run of contending teams, this much flux heading into the offseason is certainly unsettling for the club, making Woodruff’s health a huge X-factor. It does help that Milwaukee will be bringing back pretty much everyone from one of the game’s better relief corps, and it’s safe to expect a couple more bullpen arms to be cycled in and out as the Brewers look to find another hidden gem of a relief option.
The Brewers’ pitching and defense helped carry the team to the NL Central crown despite an offense that was inconsistent at best. Considering that the Crew need lineup reinforcement and infield help in particular, they might be more compelled to hang onto Adames, despite his down year at the plate. Adames hit 24 homers and still provided outstanding shortstop defense, but his 94 wRC+ (from a .217/.310/.407 slash line) was well below the 116 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22, as Adames’ hard-contact rates plunged this season.
Adames’ bat did come back to life over the last six weeks of the schedule, so it could be that the 28-year-old simply had an unusually prolonged slump. If looking for possible causes, his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic, and Adames only played in one game for the Dominican Republic. It could be that with a full and normal Spring Training, Adames will look more like his normal self in 2024, which is good news for the Brewers…or a new team.
Brice Turang is a gifted enough fielder to at least replace Adames’ glovework at shortstop, but Turang didn’t show much at the plate in his rookie year. Turang had a 60 wRC+, the second-lowest of all MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last season. While it’s too early to assume that Turang can’t become at least a passable hitter, he is already slated to be Milwaukee’s first choice at second base next season, so it just creates another hole on the diamond if Turang was moved to shortstop in the event of an Adames trade. Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller had their moments in 2023 and Abraham Toro could contribute if he isn’t non-tendered, but the Brewers might prefer having this group as utility depth rather getting steady playing time in a second base platoon.
Or, a third base platoon, since the hot corner was a revolving door for much of 2023. Brian Anderson and Monasterio handled the bulk of the playing time, but Anderson has already been released, and the Brewers aren’t likely to bring back late-season pickup Josh Donaldson. Prospect Tyler Black played a lot of third base at Triple-A Nashville last season and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024, though it remains to be seen if third base will necessarily be his primary position, as he has been shuffled all around the diamond trying to find an ideal defensive spot.
First base was also a weak link before trade deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana helped stabilize things, though Santana is a free agent and the Brew Crew have a $9.5MM decision to make on Canha’s club option. It might not have been a decision Milwaukee necessarily expected to make when they landed Canha from the Mets, yet Canha played so well (.800 OPS in 204 PA) as a Brewer that exercising the option might easily solve one lineup concern.
Canha would probably primarily play first base, but his ability to also play both corner outfield slots provides extra depth, and perhaps gives the Crew some extra leverage in trading from their outfield depth. Moving an outfielder for a third baseman in particular could be helpful, since the list of free agent third-base options isn’t deep, and the Brewers aren’t likely to be spending in the Matt Chapman/Jeimer Candelario tiers.
Turning to the outfield, Christian Yelich isn’t exactly back in his old MVP form, but his 122 wRC+ was his highest since 2019. He’s still locked into the left field spot, though Yelich figures to get some DH days to open up playing time for former top prospects Garrett Mitchell (who missed most of the year due to shoulder surgery) and Sal Frelick, as well as Tyrone Taylor and rookies Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer. While Yelich is the only established player of this group, there could be enough of a surplus here for the Brewers to explore trades, especially since another highly-touted youngster is waiting in the wings.
Jackson Chourio doesn’t celebrate his 20th birthday until March, but he is already ranked as one of baseball’s very best prospects after tearing up the minors over his three pro seasons. Chourio has only six games and 24 PA at the Triple-A level, so it is possible Milwaukee starts him back at Triple-A to begin the season to get the outfielder some more seasoning. However, between Chourio’s intriguing potential and the Prospect Promotion Incentive opportunity open to the Brewers, a big Spring Training performance might put Chourio in center field for Milwaukee on Opening Day.
Since Chourio figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2024, the Brewers might hold off on an outfield trade until they see how everything shakes out. Frelick and Mitchell aren’t likely going anywhere, but Wiemer is a former top-100 prospect and Taylor has generally been a solid part-timer over his five MLB seasons. Those latter two players might hold appeal to other teams, if perhaps as part of a package deal rather than in a notable one-for-one swap.
Turning to the final bench spot, free agent Victor Caratini had a solid season as William Contreras’ backup, and might look for more playing time with another team. The Brewers would surely like to re-sign Caratini if possible, but they’ll be on the lookout for another veteran backstop if necessary. The good news is that the Crew don’t necessarily have to limit themselves to glove-first types, as Conteras made such impressive strides with his blocking and framing that he now looks like an above-average catcher on both defense and offense.
Contreras is the latest example of how the Crew have been able to continually reload their roster. The infamous Hader trade led to Gasser and Esteury Ruiz joining the Brewers, which led to Ruiz being sent to the A’s as part of that three-team deal that resulted in Contreras and ace setup man Joel Payamps coming to Milwaukee. Naturally not every trade is going to work out quite as swimmingly, but it does provide hope that if Burnes, Adames, or Woodruff are indeed moved, Arnold will be able to again bring back a noteworthy return.
Arnold will have to weigh his big trade decisions against how to best upgrade the existing quality on the roster, all while not creating any roadblocks for the impending arrival of Chourio, Black, and Gasser. Counsell’s future and Woodruff’s shoulder are the two biggest topics facing Milwaukee as the offseason begins, but the Brewers enter a potentially fascinating winter.
