The Cardinals are looking to prove that last year was a fluke. They bolstered their pitching staff to help them bounce back in 2024, but did they do enough?
Major League Signings
2024 spending: $42MM
Total spending: $107MM
Option Decisions
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
It’s very rare for the Cardinals to go into an offseason on the heels of a massive disappointment. In this millennium, they have missed the playoffs eight times and only twice finished below .500. Last year was one of those two, as they went 71-91 and finished fifth in the National League Central for the first time ever.
The rotation was a clear target area for change, as the club’s starters posted a collective 5.08 earned run average last year, a mark better than just four other clubs. Three spots were opened by last year’s trades of impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as well as the retirement of Adam Wainwright.
There were rumors that the club may use its position player surplus to swing a trade that would upgrade the rotation, but they instead jumped in the free agent market early. By the end of November, they had already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.
Whether that was the best way to go about upgrading the rotation is a matter of debate, especially with the club having also been connected to exciting names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow at times this winter. Lynn will turn 37 years old this year and is coming off a rough campaign in 2023. He posted a 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers while allowing 44 home runs, plus another four long balls in his one postseason start. Gibson has been a fairly reliable innings eater but doesn’t have much upside at this point in his career. He’s now 36 and finished each of the past two seasons with an ERA near 5.00.
Gray is the most exciting of their pickups, as he just finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting after a 2.79 ERA season with the Twins. But there’s some downside risk with Gray as well, as the Cards may have made a proverbial buy-high move. Gray’s 184 innings in 2023 were his highest tally since 2015, as he has had various injuries to deal with over the years. He’s now 34 years old and already going into 2024 with a health concern, battling a hamstring strain that’s left him questionable for Opening Day.
Some fans wanted the club to continue adding to the rotation, especially with Steven Matz having struggled so much since signing a four-year deal in St. Louis. The club’s interest in Cease reportedly lingered even after making those three signings, but nothing came together. That leaves Matz still a part of the projected rotation, especially with Gray’s injury, and the Cards hoping for a bounce back.
The much-discussed position player surplus didn’t end up factoring into the rotation, but it did affect the pitching staff in other ways. There was rumored interest in players like Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson, but the Cards instead flipped Tyler O’Neill as their biggest trade this winter. O’Neill, who is an impending free agent and previously clashed with manager Oliver Marmol, was flipped to Boston for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson should be able to help the club’s bullpen right away, as he already has 22 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Santos adds some non-roster depth for the rotation, but he missed all of 2023 due to injury and has fewer than 45 Triple-A innings on his ledger.
The club made another move that sent out a position player for a reliever, as Richie Palacios was flipped to the Rays and Andrew Kittredge. It may have been underwhelming for some fans as Kittredge is turning 34, missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and is a mere rental. But Kittredge was utterly dominant in 2021 and the Cards had just grabbed Palacios off the DFA pile in June.
The bullpen was padded in other ways, as Middleton was brought aboard on a one-year, $6MM deal in free agency after a resurgent showing in 2023. The Cards also grabbed Riley O’Brien in a small trade and selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft.
On the position player side of things, very little has changed from last year, apart from those moves. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will still be the anchors at the infield corners. The big question is the shortstop position, as the Paul DeJong era is now over. The club is hoping top prospect Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future, but he’s just about to turn 22 years old and hit only .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, since his .196 batting average on balls in play in that time was well below league average. He also posted a solid slash line of .288/.359/.474 in Triple-A last year.
The club has plenty of faith that he can post better results in a larger sample of work, but they also added a bit of insurance. Long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was signed to a modest one-year deal, though Crawford and the club’s decision makers made it clear that Winn is the starter. Crawford is merely around to offer guidance from his years of experience, and to serve as a safety net in the event of an injury or perhaps Winn not securing the job as hoped.
Winn’s emergence pushed Tommy Edman to center field, which is partially what caused such a logjam on the grass and led to the O’Neill and Palacios trades. On paper, Edman was going to be in center, flanked by Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, with Carlson, Burleson and Donovan also in the mix for playing time. Those plans are currently on hold, as both Edman and Nootbaar are questionable for Opening Day due to injuries, though that will hopefully just be a short-term situation.
The club also hopes to have bolstered its bench by bringing in old friend Matt Carpenter. His 2022 renaissance didn’t continue into 2023, so San Diego traded him to Atlanta in a salary-dumping deal. Atlanta took on Carpenter’s salary to get lefty Ray Kerr, then promptly released Carpenter. That freed him up to return to St. Louis, with the Cards only having to pay the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster. If he can have yet another renaissance, they will have found lightning in a bottle. If not, they can move on without really having lost much of anything beyond the opportunity cost.
Though the club is making an earnest effort to return to contention in 2024, they also did little to commit themselves beyond this year. Other than Gray, all of their signings were one-year deals. They have some interest in extending Paul Goldschmidt, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said they may kick those talks into the season until they see how things are going.
“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts. You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.
Goldschmidt is an impending free agent and will turn 37 during the upcoming season. The club obviously likes to keep franchise legends around, with Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Wainwright all running out the clock in St. Louis in recent years. But with Goldschmidt, perhaps the club wants to wait and see if their planned bounceback season actually comes to fruition before they start committing future dollars. If they fall back again, Goldschmidt could be one of the best rental bats available at the summer deadline. They may want to keep that door open.
What also may be an issue is the club’s TV revenue uncertainty. The Cards are one of the clubs who is under contract with Diamond Sports Group, who once seemed like they were going to cease operations after 2024. The company has managed to stay afloat for now by selling some streaming rights to Amazon, but it’s still unclear how viable their long-term plan is. The Cards get over $70MM per year from Diamond and may want closure on that situation before making big decisions about the future.
In the end, it amounts to a half-in, half-out offseason. They made one splashy move by signing Gray but otherwise kept various long-term paths open. Are they good enough to compete this year? How much TV money is coming in? Will they keep Goldschmidt around or pivot to a post-Goldy era?
There’s a lot that needs to be revealed this year, but for now, the club patched their biggest holes. That may be enough in the NL Central, where there’s no clear frontrunner and it’s arguable that each of the five teams are in position to potentially surge ahead. Though the signings of Lynn and Gibson weren’t as sexy as getting someone like Cease or Yamamoto, both FanGraphs and PECOTA think the Cards are now the best team in the division, so maybe a couple of floor-raising moves and some bouncebacks will be enough to take the Central in the end.
