Only four teams have a lower winning percentage than the Cardinals’ .413 mark, as the Cards’ struggles have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. With a 31-44 record, time is running out for St. Louis to make a push towards a playoff spot — the club is 11 games out of a National League wild card berth, and four games behind the Pirates just to reach fourth place in the NL Central.
Barring a major surge, it’s looking like the Cardinals will post their second losing record of the last 24 seasons. This remarkable run of consistency seems to be fueling John Mozeliak’s approach to the upcoming trade deadline, as the president of baseball operations ruled out the idea that the Cardinals would pursue a full rebuild.
“I would hope the Cardinals are not allowed to rebuild,” Mozeliak told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), in reference to the “pressure” St. Louis fans put on the team to remain perpetual contenders. This is the only scenario that Mozeliak seems to have ruled out in regards to the trade deadline, since “as we sit here on the 23rd of June, we still don’t know exactly which path we’ll walk. From a front office standpoint, we have to start preparing.”
The likeliest scenario would seem to be looking for “some deals made that … maybe could help now, but also could help in the future, or that maybe could be more of a reshuffling,” the PBO said. Jones feels the Cardinals will take this route whether they can get back into the race or not, as a nod to the unsettled nature of the club’s pitching staff. Adam Wainwright is retiring after the season, both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery will be free agents, and Steven Matz’s rotation future is far from guaranteed given his ongoing struggles, so it makes sense that the Cardinals will be looking to obtain some controllable pitching. St. Louis already made a trade in this mold last summer, obtaining Montgomery from the Yankees in exchange for Harrison Bader.
A similar pitching-for-position player swap would make sense on paper, as the Cardinals again have a seeming glut of players in need of regular at-bats. That said, St. Louis isn’t going to be moving any core pieces (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) or any of their true blue-chip young players (such as Jordan Walker) since the team is looking to reload for 2024, not rebuild. It can be safely assumed that the likes of Tommy Edman, Willson Contreras, or Lars Nootbaar are also staying put, but it remains to be seen if any of the other position players have enough value to bring back a noteworthy arm on the trade market.
Flaherty and/or Montgomery could also be trade chips, if the Cardinals did opt to punt on 2023 and look to move some pending free agents. As noted, it doesn’t seem like the Cards will fall into a strict buyer or seller mode, which Mozeliak cited as two of the other routes for the team heading into the deadline. The other option to “hold pat, do nothing” doesn’t appear to be too likely, since Mozeliak said bluntly that “we know we’re not where we want to be, and we know we have to make some changes.”
