With NASCAR’s longest and one of its most prestigious events, the Coca-Cola 600, looming on Sunday night, several drivers likely found it a little tough to sleep on Saturday.
But several, nine to be exact, likely found it a little easier than the others.
William Byron, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano and Ricky Stenhouse each have earned at least one win this season, thus locking themselves into the playoffs. Why does that matter now? Because in addition to being one of the circuit’s crown jewels, the 600 also marks the 14th race of the year, meaning at the drop of the green flag, NASCAR’s regular season is past the halfway mark.
And with just 13 races to go until the playoffs, starting with Sunday’s marathon, there are still some drivers, including some big names, with some work to do. Here is a look at some of them, their prospects over the next 13 races and just how panicked their fans should be.
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Ross Chastain
Outlook: Barring a suspension or injury, it’s hard to believe Chastain won’t be in the top 16. In fact, it’s just has difficult to fathom that he hasn’t won a race already. But a year after the sport produced 19 winners, Chastain can’t be considered safe, no matter how fast he’s been, especially considering the enemies he’s made. Chastain’s fate, should he not break through for a victory, is likely in the hands of those behind him and rest assured, he’ll be rooting for repeat winners the rest of the way.
Panic meter: 0.01 out of 10. Relax. The Boss is getting in, one way or another, come hell or hail melon.
Kevin Harvick
Outlook: Much of the same applies for Harvick. Again, it would take something unforeseen or a rash of new winners to put Harvick in jeopardy, but try telling that to Truex who finished in the top five in points last year but failed to make the playoffs. Sure, there are some great tracks for Harvick coming up — he’s won a combined 20 times at Charlotte, Atlanta, New Hampshire, Richmond and Michigan — but there are also four road course races and a finale at Daytona remaining, meaning greater chances for new winners.
Panic meter: 0.02 out of 10. I still believe Harvick has a win in him this year and he’s as reliable as anyone in the sport. I’d be shocked if he’s not in by regular season’s end.
Ryan Blaney
Outlook: Of much greater concern, it’s now been 59 races since Blaney won a points-paying event, an almost unfathomable skid considering Blaney’s talent and the speed of his ride at Team Penske. Blaney was the only driver to point his way into the playoff field last year and is in a decently good spot to do so again. But Blaney’s focus is likely much more immediate and accomplishing the short term would take care of the long term.
Panic meter: 3 out of 10. I’m more concerned with his inability to get to Victory Lane but I’m a big fan of his ability no matter the type of track. I think he’ll be there, but I’m not as convinced as the first two on this list.
Brad Keselowski
Outlook: Keselowski has been one of the feel-good stories of the year as he’s clearly overcome last year’s slow start at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing and turned in some quality performances throughout the first half of this year. He’s won twice at Charlotte and also has a pair of wins at Atlanta, Richmond and New Hampshire each. As good as he’s been, he may just need a breakthrough considering the number of new winners the Gen-7 car has produced and with three currently winless drivers well ahead of him.
Panic meter: 5 out of 10. I’m a big fan of what Keselowski has done but if he’s truly maximizing runs, one has to wonder if he has anything left to take the next, final step to the winner’s circle. Points are a possibility, but avoiding more winners and leapfrogging the needed competition seem like tall orders.
Bubba Wallace
Outlook: The good news is that Wallace is red hot right now. Counting the All Star race, he’s strung together three straight top-five finishes and has come home 12th or better in five of the last six points-paying races. The next handful of events were a struggle for Wallace last year before he caught fire in the heat of summer, rattling off four straight top eights at New Hampshire, Pocono, Indy and Michigan. He’ll always be a threat at Daytona, where he has four top-five finishes.
Panic meter: 6 out of 10. The speed is there. The recent results are there. But we’ve seen Wallace have these stretches before. He has the speed to win a race and very well might, but so might several of the guys around him in the standings. Including …
Alex Bowman
Outlook: Despite missing three events due to a broken vertebrae, Bowman is still in fairly decent shape and has plenty of time not only to get above the cutline, but to pass a few other winless drivers ahead of him, namely Chase Briscoe (16th), Wallace and Chris Buescher (13th). But beyond that, things get tough. He’s won at both Pocono and Richmond but doesn’t have more than one win at any track. Breaking that trend or breaking through elsewhere is likely Bowman’s best shot.
Panic meter: 4 out of 10. While having a win each at seven different racetracks speaks to a well-rounded repertoire, it also means that Bowman doesn’t have one, specific event to hang his hat on. He’s a Hendrick Motorsports driver and there’s speed there to burn, but he’ll have to figure out how to beat his own teammates to get the win he needs.
Daniel Suarez
Outlook: Bring on Sonoma! Certainly, the site of Suarez’s first and only Cup Series win, a victory that earned him entry into last season’s playoffs, looms as one of his best chances to earn a berth this year. More good news, counting Sonoma, six of Suarez’s nine best tracks are also on the schedule before the cutoff at Daytona in late August. But his inconsistencies make a berth based on points seemingly unlikely. Suarez has finished 22nd or worse in over half (7 of 13) of the races so far including a stretch of five straight after opening the season with three consecutive top 10s.
Panic meter: 7 out of 10. There are far too many lows with Suarez to ever bank on a win. He was able to get there at Sonoma last year, and maybe he gets there again this year, I just haven’t seen much to indicate he’s any better than he was a year ago while several other drivers — i.e. Keselowski — clearly are.
AJ Allmendinger
Let’s cut to the chase: Allmendinger gets listed here for one reason, his ability on road courses and a win at any of them likely gets him in, provided he can stay in the top 30 in points. It’s been a disappointing grind for Allmendinger in his return to full-time, Cup Series status. After finishing sixth in the Daytona 500, he hasn’t finished better than 14th. But a victory at Sonoma, Chicago, Watkins Glen or Indy and all of that can be forgotten and forgiven.
Panic meter: 5 out of 10. I think Allmendinger gets one of these four road wins. He was plenty fast enough at COTA after all. But he better, because he hasn’t been nearly good enough anywhere else to even think about points and that drastically limits his options.
Chase Elliott
Realistically, Elliott’s chances of getting in on points are probably higher than most of the winless drivers in front of him, even with the deficit he faces. Since missing six races with a broken leg, Elliott has finished 12th or better in each of his five events but would likely just assume to win and put all the worries to bed. He has a pair of victories and a career average finish of 5.7 at Watkins Glen and has five other wins on road courses but he’s dangerous anywhere.
Panic meter: 1 out of 10. Behind Chastain and Harvick, I’m less concerned about Elliott than any other driver on this list. He’s going to win one of these next 12 races, maybe more, and it wouldn’t shock me if he got one in the 600 on Sunday.
Austin Dillon
Kyle Busch’s success since coming to Richard Childress Racing has helped mask the struggles of the organization’s other car, driven by Austin Dillon. Even if Dillon had a win, he wouldn’t be in at this point due to being too low in points and finding one between now and August will be difficult, though he does have a victory in the Coca-Cola 600 and won at Daytona last year to sneak into the postseason.
Panic meter: 11½ out of 10. I know he’s done it before. Heck he did it last year. But go back and watch last season’s Daytona summer race and tell me the odds of a crash/weather scenario breaking that way again. He’s the longshot of this group but maybe that’s right where he feels at home.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR: Elliott, Harvick among those with work to do at halfway point
