Homestead-Miami Speedway is back at the end of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.
It’d be much better if the 1.5-mile track served as the host of the season finale again like it did for so many years in the 2000s, but we’ll take it being the 34th of 36 races. Homestead has long been one of the best intermediate tracks in NASCAR and a worthy place to determine a title. The season finale was moved to Phoenix ahead of the 2020 season by NASCAR for reasons that had little do with racing and a lot to do with money spent at Phoenix, and Homestead found itself bouncing around the schedule.
It hosted a race in the summer of 2020 and then in the spring of 2021. It’s finally hosting a playoff race again and there aren’t any clear favorites to win on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick enter the weekend as the two co-favorites at +700 at BetMGM. And they’re closely followed by a bunch of drivers. Five drivers have odds at +1000 while four others have odds at +1200. Overall, 12 drivers have odds at +1800 or better to win on Sunday. That hasn’t happened often so far this season.
The wide-open nature of Sunday’s race is another reason why Homestead should still be the season finale. Eleven different drivers have won intermediate track races this year and we wouldn’t be surprised if that number grew to 12 at the final intermediate race of the season. After Homestead, the season closes with races at Martinsville and Phoenix.
Here’s what you need to know to bet the race.
Denny Hamlin (+700)
Tyler Reddick (+700)
Chase Elliott (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1000)
Kyle Larson (+1000)
Ross Chastain (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Hamlin has three wins and 11 top-10 finishes in 17 starts at Homestead. Reddick has an average finish of third in two Cup Series races at the track and won two Xfinity titles at Homestead. Elliott has never won in six Homestead starts but has an average finish of ninth. Logano won the 2018 race at Homestead to win the Cup title while Larson has four top-five finishes in eight starts. Blaney has just one top-five finish in seven starts and Chastain finished 17th a season ago in his only Homestead start in good equipment.
Good mid-tier value
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)
Busch has two wins and 10 top-10 finishes in 17 starts at Homestead. Those two wins came in 2015 and 2019 as he won his two Cup Series titles. Truex has 11 top 10s in 17 starts and his win came when he got the 2017 title. Both drivers had serious speed at Las Vegas a week ago and should be in contention again on Sunday despite not being a part of the playoffs.
Don’t bet this driver
Gragson has such relatively low odds because he’s in Hendrick equipment. But he’s shown nothing close to race-winning speed while subbing for Alex Bowman and there’s nothing to suggest that will change at Homestead.
Looking for a long shot?
We’re sticking with Jones again in this category as he has a win and four top-10 starts in the last five intermediate track races. You’re not going to find that success anywhere else among drivers with odds worse than +4000.