Whoever wins Sunday’s Cup Series race at Las Vegas very likely isn’t going to win at the track in the fall.
Las Vegas hasn’t produced a back-to-back winner since Jimmie Johnson won three consecutive races from 2005-07. That was back when Las Vegas had just one Cup Series race. It’s had two since the 2018 season when a second race was added during the playoffs.
Joey Logano is the only driver to win multiple races at Vegas in the five seasons the track has held two races. Logano has three wins in that span while Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman each have one.
All but Busch are still active. Can they get a second win at the track? Or can Kyle Busch get a second win? Kyle Busch hasn’t won in his hometown since 2009.
Kyle Busch (+550)
Kyle Larson (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Ross Chastain (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Busch gets favorite status because of his win a week ago at Auto Club Speedway and his average finish of 10.8 at the track. Logano has the best average finish at 8.5 to go along with his three wins. Larson has nine top-10 finishes in 13 starts while Blaney has eight in the same number of starts. Chastain has finished third and second in his two Vegas starts with Trackhouse Racing.
Good mid-tier value
Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
Truex has two wins and 13 top 10s in 22 starts and an average finish of 10.1. He had a great run going at Auto Club before a loose wheel put him two laps down. Reddick has three top 10s in six starts and 23XI Racing has shown great speed on 1.5-mile tracks.
Don’t bet this driver
Byron has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts at Vegas and wasn’t competitive at Auto Club Speedway.
Looking for a long shot?
Perhaps Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing is making some gains. Keselowski was seventh at Auto Club and his Vegas finish improved seven spots from 24th to 17th over the course of the two races in 2022.